Long gas lines

Uttercast: News Shortage?

Uttercast: News Shortage? (Photo credit: doughaslam)

If you have been watching TV coverage of the aftermath of hurricane Sandy, you have probably noticed the long lines of motorists waiting to purchase gas for their vehicles. The lines are the result, not of shortages, but of the absence of electricity to power the gas pumps at the service stations. During 1973-74 and again in 1979, gas lines like the ones you are seeing in New Jersey and New York formed everywhere in the US because of actual shortages of gasoline. The shortages were relatively small, 6%+, but there was panic buying. Short tempers caused fights to break out in lines as some motorists tried to jump ahead of others who had been waiting longer.

What you are seeing today in a small part of the country could be the future of the entire country, if we or Israel bomb Iran. The mere threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz could create shortages and send gas prices soaring. The US Navy may be able to keep shipping safe in the area, but insurers will raise their rates immediately on ships in the area. The threat of an Iranian attack will be sufficient to keep some ship owners out of the area. If you do not want to spend time in lines awaiting your opportunity to buy gas in rationed quantities at high prices, tell your politicians not to attack Iran.

Please see Strait of Hormuz | Strait of Hormuz part 2 | Strait of Hormuz part 3

October surprise

English: Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli politician

English: Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli politician (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Will there be an October surprise this year intended to affect the election? I fear there may be but it will be instigated by an Israel attack on Iran if it happens. Benjamin Netanyahu would prefer a compliant Romney as president in place of an independent Obama. His dilemma is how will US voters react to another war in the Middle East if it leads to the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz and gas shortages worldwide. Romney polls ahead of President Obama on the economy (falsely in my opinion), but Barack has a wide lead in polling on foreign affairs. US Neocons, influential during the GW Bush years, are urging Israel to attack Iran.

Results

English: Barack Obama signing the Patient Prot...

English: Barack Obama signing the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act at the White House (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

In politics, it is results that count. Republicans criticize the Affordable Care Act and they also criticize the compromises that made it possible. I too, was disappointed with some of the compromises made, but without them, there would have been no Affordable Care Act. Compromise is a means to an end. It should not be any means to an end, but some ends justify some means.

Speaking of results, consider the results of a Romney/Ryan victory in November.

  1. Repeal of the Affordable Care Act and no replacement.
  2. The end of Medicare as we know it.
  3. Privatization of Social Security.
  4. War with Iran and the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz.
  5. The Great Depression 2.

Makes you want to vote, doesn’t it?

Nightmare

Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts,...

Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts, 2008 US presidential candidate. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Last night I dreamed that Mitt Romney was President.

As President, Mitt really has no domestic agenda. I believe that he will sign into law anything that a Republican Congress may pass. Of course, that will include the repeal of Romneycare. Whoops, I mean Obamacare. All of us, except the 1% can look forward to austerity leading to the Great Depression 2.

I am more concerned with Romney as commander-in-chief. Some of his advisers are the same people who gave us Iraq and are now advocating military action against Iran. Iran will not be the pushover, militarily, that Iraq was. If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, the world economy will grind to a halt. The only button I want Mitt’s finger on is the buttons on a TV remote in one of his many homes.

Really scared myself with that dream. I hope that it never becomes reality because a Romney presidency would be a true nightmare.

Please see Strait of Hormuz |  Strait of Hormuz part 2 |  Strait of Hormuz part 3

 

Strait of Hormuz part 3

Strait of Hormuz

If Israel attacks Iran, we must evacuate our naval ships from the Persian Gulf before the Strait of Hormuz is blocked by damaged or sunken oil tankers. As you can see from the above closeup from Google Earth, the shipping lanes take a sharp corner that I believe must be navigated at a reduced speed for large ships. The shipping lanes are already very narrow due to the numerous islands and partially submerged rocks. We want to avoid a repeat of the Costa Concordia incident.

Once the Strait is closed, it will require weeks or months to clear the wreckage, especially under hostile conditions. During that time our ships will be targets for Iranian missiles and small boats. I believe that our naval aviation will easily defeat the Iranian air force, but their missiles and torpedoes will put our navy to a severe test. I don’t know how effective their defenses are; let us use 95% as an example. That means for every hundred Iranian missiles launched at US ships, 95 will be destroyed without damage to our ships and 5 will not, and will cause damage. Even if our effectiveness is 99%, one in one hundred missiles will reach its target.

Then imagine in a numbers game that Iranians launch hundreds of missiles at one time to overwhelm the US defenders. Can our ships survive that sort of attack? I don’t want to find out. The sinking or severe damage to an US nuclear aircraft carrier could cause more casualties than occurred on 9-11.

Please see Strait of Hormuz | Strait of Hormuz part 2 | Regime change | Decision/Indecision 2012