LIz Cheney message

, U.S. Senator.

, U.S. Senator. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Portion of a fundraising message from Liz Cheney. Just imagine she calls John McCain and Olympia Snowe liberal Republicans.

“Just last week, a shadowy, out-of-state Super PAC launched a dishonest smear campaign to distort my record. Last month, the National Republican Senatorial Committee partnered with my opponent to raise money to try and stop us. This is the same Washington Establishment that endorsed Democrat Charlie Crist over Marco Rubio. Liberal Republican Senators like John McCain and Olympia Snowe have endorsed my opponent. We must be doing something right if these folks are fighting so hard to preserve the status quo.”

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2016 revisited

English: Scott Brown, Republican U.S. Senator ...

English: Scott Brown, Republican U.S. Senator representing Massachusetts, at a U.S. Senate campaign event on December 31, 2009, in Plymouth Massachusetts (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

It’s too early to predict the race, but there is a rule of thumb that is often applicable; voters in a presidential election prefer the candidate with the shorter last name. This rule of thumb may be affected by the state of the economy, but has worked well in many elections. Bush (four letters) versus Gore (four letters) was a virtual tie. Bush (4) defeated Kerry (5). Obama (5) defeated both McCain (6) and Romney (6).

In 2016, Clinton (7) will defeat Christie (8) if nominated. Former Senator Scott Brown (5) would do well against Clinton (7) if he enters the race and manages to secure the nomination. Cruz (4), Paul (4) and Rubio (5) might do well, but none of them will be nominated.

We want Romneycare

English: Official portrait of US Senator Marco...

English: Official portrait of US Senator Marco Rubio of Florida. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

If the GOP are successful at some point in the future in repealing the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), have they given any thought to the consequences? According to Marco Rubio, Americans can vote with their feet and leave Massachusetts to escape Romneycare. What if Congress repeals Obamacare and does not replace it? Midwesterners and New Yorkers may decide to retire in Massachusetts rather than Florida. If the trend to Massachusetts catches on and Massachusetts gains population and other states lose population, that will affect the census. Massachusetts will gain members of Congress and other states will lose Representatives. Eventually if carried to extremes, the US will have 49 states with one Representative each and Massachusetts will have 386 Representatives in Congress. In presidential elections, it will be only necessary to carry one state, Massachusetts.

Of course, other states will not permit this to happen. They will begin to offer their own versions of Romneycare, perhaps Romneycare Plus or Romneycare Advantage. Those states that resist offering healthcare will see their populations decrease and their representation in Congress decline. The GOP should be happy with this. They often want to give Federal programs to the states, starting what is usually a race to the bottom. Democrats like President Obama in his education reform often support a race to the top.

TEA Party conservatives

English: Official photo of former Florida Gove...

English: Official photo of former Florida Governor Jeb Bush (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

To be a successful, TEA Party conservative, a politician must have a short name of 7 or 8 letters combined that supporters can remember and spell, such as Mike Lee, Ted Cruz and Rand Paul. At 10 letters, Marco Rubio is too long; perhaps he should consider shortening it to Mark Ruby. Jeb Bush at 7 letters could make it if he changed some of his positions. Michele Bachmann failed as a successful TEA Party politician since her name is too long and too hard to spell. Here in Utah, Mia Love lost narrowly in 2012 and is expected to run again for Congress in 2014. Although her name is only 7 letters long, she has other factors against her success, including youth and gender.

GOP in 2016

The red "GOP" logo used by the party...

The red “GOP” logo used by the party for its website (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Before speculating about the GOP presidential candidate in 2016, it is first necessary to speculate about whether there will be a GOP in 2016. Then it is necessary to speculate about the nature of the party that will nominate a candidate. One thing to be sure, the GOP will not change until they have exhausted ALL alternatives, and that means ALL the ways to win or steal the election without significant change within the party.