Red dog/white dog

Anatol Lieven GPF2010

Anatol Lieven GPF2010 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The USSR was the red dog; the US is the white dog. From Pakistan, A Hard Country by Anatol Lieven.

“And indeed, the view of the mass of the Pakistani population on Afghanistan was summed up pretty well by Maulana Sami-ul-Haq, leader of one faction of the JUI:

If a dog fell into your well, would you remove the dog or would you empty the well? Once a red dog fell into the Afghan well, and the international community helped to get the dog out. Now, a white dog has fallen in, and what are they doing? Trying to empty the well, one bucket at a time. Haven’t they learned anything from Afghan history? But our people, the Pakistanis, support those who are trying to remove the dog.”

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Pathan facts

帕斯顿人 / Pashtun People

帕斯顿人 / Pashtun People (Photo credit: Tianyake)

From Pakistan, A Hard Country by Anatol Lieven. The Pathan tribe in Afghanistan represents about 40% of the total Afghan population, and they are a sizeable minority, about 20 million, in Pakistan. Most Pathans live in the contiguous area separated by the Durand line which is the western border of Pakistan. The British created the artificial Durand line in 1893.

“The religious theme has therefore long flowed together with tribal yearning for freedom from authority–any authority, but above all of course alien and infidel domination. Or, as a Pathan saying has it: ‘The Afghans of the frontier are never at peace except when they are at war.'”

“As in Somalia, all the elements would seem to be in place to create a modern ethno-linguistic nation-state; and yet the Pathans like the Somalis have never generated a modern state-building nationalism; and have indeed played a leading part in tearing to pieces whatever states have been created on their territory.”

And these are the people we are trying to help with our nation building in Afghanistan. Time to withdraw completely.

We won (sort of)

Afghanistan

Afghanistan (Photo credit: Ricymar Photography(Thanks Everyone!!!!))

In the contest called Afghanistan, the US has won (sort of). We outlasted the USSR in Afghanistan. Their war lasted 9 years while we are still fighting after 10+ years. The Soviet effort bankrupted the USSR and led to the dissolution of the country. The Afghan war has not bankrupted the US yet, but it is past time to declare victory and get out before we bankrupt ourselves. Forget about invading Iran or Syria. We can’t afford more wars now in our time of sequestration.

The real victors in the Afghan war are the people of Afghanistan. They are undefeated against Alexander the Great, the British, the Soviets and now the Americans. The only outside victor in Afghanistan was an idea, Islam. If we believe that Afghanistan should adopt democracy and gender equality, then we must be patient and permit the Afghans to decide for themselves if and when they are ready for change. In the meantime, I suggest that we withdraw and then replace our military aid with humanitarian assistance. In the long run, that will provide a better solution for Afghanistan and for the US.

What if?

, U.S. Senator from Nebraska.

, U.S. Senator from Nebraska. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

According to Chuck Hagel, “The Iraq and Afghanistan wars have not resonated with this generation the way previous wars did with other generations–largely because most Americans are disconnected from the burden and sacrifices of these wars. Less than 1 percent of our population is carrying all the burden, making all the sacrifices, and doing all the fighting and dying in these wars. There is no draft–no direct link to these wars for the other 99 percent of our population.”

The 1% fighting our wars is not the same 1% as the top 1% of income earners in our economy. What if it were the same 1%? The most fortunate among us would be compelled by custom and law to be the 1% fighting our wars. I believe it would be a much more peaceful world. When Rome was in its twilight years as an empire, some of the sons of Rome’s most privileged citizens had the thumb on their sword hand amputated so that they could not wield a sword and fight for their country. Are we the majority of Americans still willing to shoulder our responsibility to defend the nation?

Bush and bin Laden

English: Osama bin Laden Compound Italiano: Il...

English: Osama bin Laden Compound Italiano: Il complesso di Osama Bin Laden (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

George W. Bush and Osama bin Laden. The following is from Decision Points by George W. Bush and these are Bush’s words.

“Driven out of their strongholds, the remnants of the Taliban and al Qaeda fled to Afghanistan’s rugged eastern border with Pakistan. In early 2002, Tommy Franks mounted a major assault called Operation Anaconda. Out troops, joined by coalition partners and Afghan forces, squeezed out the remaining al Qaeda and Taliban fighters in eastern Afghanistan. CIA officers and Special Forces crawled through the caves, calling in airstrikes on terrorist hideouts and putting a serious dent in al Qaeda’s army.

“I hoped I would get a call with the news that Osama bin Laden was among the dead or captured. We were searching for him constantly and received frequent but conflicting information on his whereabouts. Some reports placed him in Jalalabad. Others had him in Peshawar, or at a lake near Kandahar, or at the Tora Bora cave complex. Our troops pursued every lead. Several times we thought we might have nailed him. But the intelligence never panned out.

“Years later, critics charged that we allowed bin Laden to slip the noose at Tora Bora. I sure didn’t see it that way. I asked our commanders and CIA officials about bin Laden frequently. They were working around the clock to locate him, and they assured me they had the troop levels and resources they needed. If we had known for sure where he was, we would have moved heaven and earth to bring him to justice.”

Those are Bush’s words, and I don’t believe them. And here is why.

At that time we knew that a portion of the Pakistan government was supporting the Taliban and probably still are. We surrounded Tora Bora on the Afghan side and relied on the Pakistanis to block exits from Tora Bora into Pakistan. They allowed bin Laden and much of al-Qaeda to escape. President Obama was able to find and kill bin Laden ONLY because he kept the Pakistan government in the dark.

We have George W. Bush’s words above. Years later, he expressed unconcern about bin Laden being only one man, as if the man responsible for 9-11 was not important. In his book In My Time, Dick Cheney does not mention Tora Bora. Tommy Franks in his book American Soldier did not know where bin Laden was. However, Franks’s deputy in command, Michael DeLong in his book A General Speaks Out, said that bin Laden was definitely at Tora Bora. He said that in the first edition of the book and changed his story in the second edition. Donald Rumsfeld claimed that we could not use American troops to block exits from Tora Bora because they would upset the area residents. Imagine that.

We had troops in the area who ready and eager to join in the battle. They were not used and wonder today why not. Tora Bora occurred within 90 days of 9-11. Imagine how different our world would be today if we had killed or captured bin Laden and the majority of al-Qaeda there. The war against al-Qaeda would have been one of the shortest wars in our history. At the beginning of the US Civil War, Union soldiers were asked to enlist for a short war, 90 days or less. The Civil War dragged on for four long, hard years. The war against al-Qaeda began on 9-11-2001 and has dragged on for 11 years with no end in sight.

How do I know that Bush’s words are untrue? Let me count the ways.

When 9-11 occurred, I thought that the Bush team was the team we needed to fight al-Qaeda. One year into the Iraq war in 2004, I had changed my mind completely. I wanted to know what was happening in Iraq and the media were not forthcoming. I started reading every book I could on Iraq and they convinced me that the Bush administration was incompetent. I have continued my reading on Iraq including Paul Bremer’s 2006 book entitled My Year in Iraq. I am convinced that all of Bush’s efforts were a mistake and a terrible of waste of life and national treasure. Even the apparent success of the surge was a fortuitous coincidence with Iraqi internal conditions that made the surge look like a success to American reporters.

Then in 2005, there was Katrina which could have been largely prevented if Bush had strengthened the levees instead of spending the money on a shipping canal that was hardly ever used. He had 4.5 years to address that problem and did not. The Afghan and Iraq wars continued during Bush’s second term. In 2007 and 2008, the banking system nearly ground to a halt and the Great Recession began. Bush could have acted earlier with Alan Greenspan to stop the inflation of the credit bubble. He did nothing.

If the Bush administration was so incompetent after invading Iraq, do we have any evidence that they were more competent before? No, we do not. We know now that Iraq was invaded under false pretenses. The Bush administration did not prevent 9-11 from happening. After it happened, it declared war on Afghanistan even though the Taliban were willing to turn bin Laden over to another country. Bush refused and started bombing the country. Rumsfeld knew that there were few targets to attack in Afghanistan and expressed the desire to start bombing Iraq where there were more targets.

So I say to you that the Bush administration was an incompetent administration from beginning to end, for the entire eight years. Not capturing bin Laden and the majority of al-Qaeda at Tora Bora when they were cornered was either stupid or criminal or both.