The first Korean War (KW1) lasted for about three years and caused the deaths of an estimated three million people, roughly 34,000 were Americans. Today, 65 years later, the Korean peninsula is more densely populated. A second Korean War (KW2) likely will cause more numerous casualties. Some military experts claim that Korea is the worst place on earth for a war. Korea is a difficult place to fight because of the terrain and the weather, which is especially bad in winter and will negate the US advantage in airpower. The Korean peninsula is mountainous and there are many caves as there are in Afghanistan. For a discussion of KW1, I recommend The Coldest Winter by David Halberstan.
If Donald Trump’s policies cause the start of KW2, expect North Korea to invade South Korea, forcing retreat by the US military, US allies and South Korean civilians to Pusan in the southeastern corner of South Korea. Pusan is South Korea’s second largest city, a port, and the natural place for the landing of US reinforcements. Logically, North Korea will attempt to stop the US and allies from landing reinforcements by striking at US bases in Japan and perhaps Guam, the Philippines and Hawaii. If the US resorts to nuclear weapons, we can expect North Korea to reciprocate. North Korea does not need operational missiles to retaliate. The US used aircraft to deliver the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. North Korea can use aircraft to strike US bases in Japan and trucks to deliver bombs within South Korea. Ships and boats could be used to strike more distant targets including US naval bases on the US west coast. Once war begins, we should expect it to spread. US allies in the Pacific may deny the US use of bases on their territories to protect their populations from North Korean attack.
We cannot expect KW2 to be short and an easy US victory. North Korean troops in KW1 were effective fighters against UN troops and almost pushed UN forces off the Korean peninsula. South Korean troops were largely ineffective. Both North and South Korea have improved their fighting capabilities, but North Korea’s ally, China, is closer to the action and their military much more numerous than US fighting forces. We should not be picking a fight with an adversary who will fight for their very existence as a people and a nation.
Trump must go.