Groups

English: Black Hispanic and Latino Americans

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Formal and informal groups are forming for the presidential election. This is how I see it developing:

For Obama and percentage of the electorate
African-Americans    10%
Hispanic-Americans  15%
Women                   50%
Democrats        25%
Independents   30%
Moderate GOP (RINO)   5%
Union members   10%
Total    145%

Male Mormons for Romney 10%
Male Evangelicals for Santorum 10%
Young Libertarians for Paul 10%
NRA             10%
TEA Party  10%
Conservative GOP 15%
Total      65%

Since the GOP can only put two of the three of Romney, Santorum, and Paul, on the ballot and it is uncertain if the individual left out will run as a third-party candidate, the total percentage for Barack’s opponent(s) is uncertain. There is an overlap in the categories for both sides, but Barack enjoys a 2:1 advantage. Let us rationalize the totals to Barack 65% and his opponent(s) 35%. Anything above 60% is a landslide victory, but there are factors working against the President.

The Bradley effect will reduce Barack’s total by 5+% to 60-40, still a landslide. However, there are two new factors this election year that will reduce his vote total even more and are difficult to evaluate. A flood of campaign cash from Citizens United and the GOP effort to prevent Obama supporters from voting will reduce Barack’s total by another 5-10%, making the election very close. Barack will still be re-elected, but not by the number of votes he should receive.

Facts and logic do not and will not play a significant role in this campaign. Fear is the dominant force at work: fear of a weakening economy, fear of terrorists, fear of Muslims, fear of anyone different and fear of change. Barack’s opponents are trying to make Barack the embodiment of all those fears. 2012 will be a very ugly year.

Please see Fear | Patriotic American | Saving America | The Bradley effect | Rush