Wild cards

Bicycle brand playing cards, showing one of ea...

Bicycle brand playing cards, showing one of each type plus the joker. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Pay no attention to current polls nor to pundits.  I have listed below some of the wild cards that may influence the November election:

  1. Iran develops a nuclear device.
  2. Israel attacks Iran.
  3. Al-Qaeda attacks US soil again.
  4. Spain or Italy leaves the Euro currency.
  5. Japan permanently abandons Tokyo because of increased radiation levels.
  6. Mother nature produces rash of tornadoes and hurricanes.
  7. Supreme Court rules on Obamacare.

I am sure that there are other wild cards that I don’t know about that should be added to the list. The results in November are likely to fall in one of these three categories:

  1. Democratic sweep leading to faster recovery from Great Recession.
  2. Divided government causing slow recovery from Great Recession to continue.
  3. Republican sweep leading to Paul Ryan budget and the Great Depression 2.

Recession and depression

English: Logo of General Motors Corporation. S...

Image via Wikipedia

For some Americans, the Great Recession is actually the Great Depression 2. In a recession, wages and prices generally stop increasing temporarily. In a depression, wages and prices actually decrease. For most Americans, the price/value of their homes has decreased and prices of some items are falling. For most of us, wages are increasing very slowly, if at all. For some, such as new hires in many industries like the auto industry, starting wages are only 50% of what they once were.

GM is now back as number one in the world and earning mucho dinero, much money. The question I have is, can the new GM employees afford to purchase the cars they are building?  If they follow the generally accepted rule of thumb to spend a maximum of 6 months salary on a car, the answer is no they cannot. Then who is buying all the cars that GM is building and selling? Is it the Chinese in China? Who?

Please see  Job creators

Never

English: World population since 1950

Image via Wikipedia

Never in the history of the world have so many been injured for so long by so much as the entire population of the world has been and is continuing to be injured by the actions of the GOP in the US Congress today. And that injury will continue for as long as the Great Recession continues or until such time as we voters reduce their numbers to ineffectiveness.

Student debt

Minimum wages nationwide.

Image via Wikipedia

A college degree used to be a sure ticket of admission to a middle class life style. No more. With the rising cost of college and the accelerating disappearance of good paying jobs, exacerbated by the Great Recession, new grads are finding it very difficult to find jobs that will allow them to begin paying back the loans that got them through school. Many are forced to live at home with their parents as they postpone starting a life of their own.

Adding to the downward pressure on wages is the insistence of business to import temporary workers to fill jobs that Americans would fill but at a higher wage. A recent online study shows that IT workers, such as computer programmers and software engineers earn about 6% less than they would without the competition of H-1B visa workers. The undocumented and those with green cards or H-1B visas hold down wages for all of us.

When supply and demand are equal, the price set by their intersection is called the market clearing pricer since enough is supplied to meet demand with no overage. Business wants no government interference in setting the market clearing price since a price too low would lead to shortages and less profit on items they sell. However, when it comes to their purchases, business is happy with a price below the market clearing price since it reduces their costs and increases profits.

Let’s assume no H-1B visas are issued. Jobs would be filled with American workers and wages would rise if some jobs are not filled. That would create an incentive for Americans to train themselves in the skills needed to fill what are now better paying jobs. It might take some time, but eventually, the supply of job applicants would increase to meet demand and a market clearing wage would be established at the higher level.

Boomerang

The logo of Boomerang in Latin America.

Image via Wikipedia

Boomerang, Travels in the New Third World by Michael Lewis, the author of Liar’s Poker and Moneyball, recently made into a film starring Brad Pitt. This slender volume is an eminently readable tale of how the Great Recession is affecting five different countries: Iceland, Greece, Ireland, Germany and the US. His  thesis  is that different cultures react differently to the shock of economic disaster.

If people are given the opportunity to live beyond their means, most people will do so. Almost everyone in Greece is corrupt; no one pays their lawful taxes. All 300 members of the Greek Parliament cheat on their taxes. To expect Greece to change its customs now when facing national default is too optimistic. And a Greek default could bring down the Euro affecting the US adversely.

Germans live by the rules, and it will be up to Germany, the financially strongest country in the European Union to bail out the rest of the members of the European Union who may need help. Iceland went bankrupt because it thought that its banks could outsmart the big banks of London and New York who had both more assets and more experience. Ireland went mad with construction of commercial and residential structures for which there was no foreseeable demand.

Here in the US, our ties to one another have become frayed. Instead of looking out for one another, it has become a game of grab all you can while you can before someone else does. We need to watch out for each other and cooperate in this time of need if we are going to survive the Great Recession, which shows no sign of ending and is likely to worsen.

On the steps of a fire-bombed bank in Athens, Lewis saw a sign quoting an ancient Greek orator named Isocrates who lived from 436 BCE to 338 BCE: “Democracy destroys itself because it abuses its right to freedom and equality. Because it teaches its citizens to consider audacity as a right, lawlessness as a freedom, abrasive speech as equality, and anarchy as progress.” True then–true today.

Please see Great Depression 2